The war in the Middle East and the unstoppable rise of AI

AI as the new safe-haven asset in times of crisis

One hundred days after the intensification of the conflict in the Middle East, the global economic landscape presents a fascinating paradox. While geopolitical volatility and the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sent energy prices soaring, capital flows have not fled toward traditional assets. On the contrary, they have poured massively into Artificial Intelligence, cementing its status as the stock market engine of the 21st century.

Far from being a bubble about to burst, the technology sector has shown unusual resilience, attracting investments that exceed the speed and volume of any previous industrial revolution. Companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are emerging as the great catalysts for this change, with highly anticipated IPOs that promise to redefine global technological dominance.

The impact on the real economy and access to housing

Inflationary instability stemming from the conflict does not affect all sectors equally. While the stock market celebrates algorithmic advances, the domestic economy suffers the consequences of restrictive monetary policy. The tightening of interest rates to curb inflation has hit the real estate sector hard, complicating access to housing for families.

"The war reveals the extent to which the global economy remains vulnerable to the energy bottleneck in Hormuz," notes Ryan Crocker, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment.

This situation of uncertainty has shifted the pressure to households, where both rent costs and mortgage payments have become unmanageable variables for a large portion of the population. As we analyzed in our article on visual health and housing: the impact of aid on the family economy, the financial stability of citizens is closely linked to the ability of governments to cushion these systemic crises.

Winners and losers

The reconfiguration of the business map has left clear winners and losers:

• Defense and Energy: Oil companies and weapons manufacturers have recorded record profits due to the urgency of replenishing arsenals and securing energy sources.
• Technology and AI: Semiconductor manufacturers like TSMC and storage specialists like Micron Technology have seen their revenues soar, ignoring the geopolitical noise.
• Mining and Raw Materials: Sectors highly sensitive to interest rates that have suffered significant declines since the outbreak of the conflict.

Geopolitics and the future: who really wins?

From a strategic perspective, the balance is complex. While the Western financial market clings to AI to sustain its indices, powers like China and Russia seem to be better capitalizing on the new geopolitical reality, consolidating alliances and securing resources. The West, for its part, faces the challenge of maintaining its technological leadership without sacrificing the social and economic stability of its citizens, who continue to deal with the effects of persistent inflation and an increasingly exclusionary real estate market.

The race for technological hegemony has begun, and for now, AI is the only force capable of cushioning the collateral damage of a world in constant tension.